The insurgents will win.

It's my sad prediction that the Iraqi insurgents will win and the country of Iraq will descend into chaos and civil war. Why? Because they're extremely difficult to stop, and in the process of trying to stop them you crack down so hard on civilian populations that tragedies like this happen: U.S. troops kill pregnant woman in Iraq - Yahoo! News

So, why does that guarantee an insurgent victory? Because the U.S. will need to pull out of Iraq. Why? Because of the perfectly natural reaction of the Iraqi citizens caught in this struggle, like this quote from the driver of the car who was rushing the pregnant woman to the hospital: "God take revenge on the Americans and those who brought them here. They have no regard for our lives."

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