Is the real estate bubble about to burst?

According to the story at WCCO: Analysts Watch For Bubble In Twin Cities Housing: the "Twin Cities have a 25 percent chance of house prices declining over the next two years".

Of course, my wife just told me that she blogged this, so she beat me to it... but I still have a question. Granting for the sake of argument that housing values will decline, how much will they decline? A 25% chance of the market having a .5% dip is a lot different from a 25% of the market taking a 30% hit.

Regardless, any decline is a bad one, considering that people are assuming a 6% or 7% guaranteed return on housing investments these days, which is silly -- nothing is guaranteed!

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